CNN/Time Poll on The 2004 Presidential Election



1-3-04 -- All this propaganda you hear on the Cable News Networks how Bush will crush Dean and Dean is too liberal etc. is just that, propaganda. The people who vote say different, Dean is only 5 points behind Bush. And that is what "likely voters" say. That has to scare the right-wingers to death. Lets see how much press this poll gets, my guess is almost none.

The truth is if all the Democrats in America show up to vote in November, Bush will lose again. In the 2000 Presidential election Al Gore got 600,000 more votes than George W. Bush and Ralph Nader got 2.9 million more votes than Pat Buchanan. That means the 2 liberals got a total of 3.5 million more votes than the 2 conservatives. It also means Bush might lose the election by 3 to 5 million votes. This is the reality, not the corporate spin you get from CNN, MSNBC, and FOX. If they count all the votes, the Democrat will beat Bush, whoever it is in November.

The 12-30-03 to 1-1-04 CNN/Time Poll:

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Dec. 30, 2003-Jan. 1, 2004. N=604 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote ?"

Bush - 51%
Dean - 46%
Not Sure - 3%

Now look at the last 2 polls they did on 9-03 and 11-03, they sampled registered voters, not likely voters.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote ?"

Among all registered voters:

11/03 -

Bush - 52%
Dean - 40%
Not Sure - 8%

9/03 -

Bush - 52%
Dean - 42%
Not Sure - 6%

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Notice the margin of error is + or - 4 percent, that means Dean could actually be at 50 percent among likely voters.

UPDATE: 1-5-04 -- CNN Has Suddenly CHANGED The Way They Report Their Polling Numbers

CNN and Time did a Presidential election poll that ran from 12-31-03 to 1-1-04. It showed Howard Dean only 5 points down to George W. Bush. The CNN/Time poll sampled 604 likely voters nationwide with a + or - margin of error of 4 percent.

This is a sudden change in method for their polls, in the past they always sampled registered voters in election polls. You can go back and look at all their other political polls and they always sample registered voters.

In this latest poll, they have Howard Dean trailing Bush by just 5 points. But what has gone mostly un-noticed is CNN suddenly changed their sampling methods to only include likely voters, instead of including all registered voters.

Normally, a poll that only includes likely voters will change the numbers to favor the Republican candidate by about 4% to 6%. Plus the general election is no where near starting, and when people start paying attention they are much more 'likely' to vote in a presidential election than an off-year election.

So that means it's very possible the full CNN/Time poll had Dean tied or ahead of Bush.

Look at all the previous CNN polls, they inserted a footnote "Among all registered voters". In the new one but they left out the full results of their own poll.

And, even though they suddenly altered their polling method to make Bush look better (or not as bad) I searched both the CNN and Time websites and could not find their own poll listed anywhere on their own websites. None of the cable news channels are reporting the results of this poll. I have watched CNN, MSNBC, and FOX for 2 or 3 days now and I have not seen the results of this poll reported by any cable tv news outlet. So much for that liberal media, where is it ?

This could be very significant, if you remember the latest corporate media spin has been to repeatedly state that Dean is un-electable, too liberal, and Bush will crush him in a landslide. If Dean were to suddenly be tied or go ahead of Bush it would not only show the media has no credibility, but would also be a huge bump for Howard Dean and the Democratic party in general.

It just goes to show that you have to keep a close eye on the corporate media. I can not prove it beyond a reasonable doubt, but it looks like CNN and Time changed their sampling methods to make Bush look better. How come they suddenly changed their sample from registered voters to likely voters ?

Think about it. I report, you decide !